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We derive a non-inflationary rate of capacity utilisation (NIRCU)—as recently proposed by Köberl and Lein (Can J Econ 44:673–694, 2011)—based on a large Austrian firm-level panel dataset ranging from 1996 to 2011. By conditioning the current capacity utilisation of firms on their current and planned price adjustments, a micro-level NIRCU is defined as the level of capacity utilisation at which there...
This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between different external knowledge sourcing strategies from universities and firms’ innovation output measured by the number of patent applications. Three strategies for acquiring external knowledge are distinguished: buying, cooperating and contracting out. The empirical model is based on the instrumental variable version of the ordered probit...
The financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis have shown that financial stress may be an important driver for economic activity. In this paper, I derive a financial stress index for Germany, using a dynamic approximate factor model that summarizes a stress component of various financial variables. Subsequently, I analyze the effects of financial stress on economic activity in a threshold...
Surveys can increase market transparency when information asymmetries are present—but this will only happen when respondents answer questions truthfully. Sometimes, however, it might not be in the respondents’ best interest to provide truthful information on their firm or market. This will be especially true when other firms can exploit any information they provide. Understanding when, and under what...
The consumer confidence index is a highly observed indicator among short-term analysts and news reporters and it is generally considered to convey some useful information about the short-term evolution of consumer expenditure. However, its usefulness in forecasting households consumption is sometimes questioned in empirical studies. A possible weakness can be due to the use of a linear functional...
In this paper, we develop a methodology for forecasting key macroeconomic indicators, based on business survey data. We estimate a large set of models, using an autoregressive specification, with regressors selected from business and household survey data. Our methodology is based on the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates method. Additionally, we examine the impact of deterministic and stochastic...
This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. Both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level are considered. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation uncertainty is closely related to output growth uncertainty. Individual forecasters seem to behave according to an uncertainty-augmented hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips...
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